Dirty Is Filthy; Giants In On Wiggin...ton

With fantasy season around the corner, fake GMs are emerging from various fake winter meetings in the far recesses of basements everywhere to find a whole new round of 2009 statistical projections. Among the most discussed of these projections are those of our very own Jonathan Sanchez. Bill James, the Godfather of Sabermetrics himself, pegs Sanchez as a 3.90 ERA / 1.40 WHIP pitcher next year. And while James's prognostications tend to be the most optimistic, all the systems peg Sanchez as a particularly unlucky pitcher in 2008 and who stands to improve as chance factors such as BABIP (batted average of balls in play) normalize and as the 26 year-old improves with experience.

Last month, FanGraphs put together an even wonkier breakdown of Sanchez's 2008 season for the die-hard statheads. Among the highlights:

On the bright side, Sanchez struck out almost a batter per inning over 158 innings – not an easy feat. Despite not throwing terribly hard (his fastball averaged 91 MPH), he showed a remarkable ability to induce swings-and-misses – in fact, batters swung and missed at 10.9% of his Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball. Pitchers who induced higher rates of swings-and-misses were a who’s who of major league baseball’s best pitchers: CC Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Ryan Dempster, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Edinson Volquez, and John Danks. That’s some elite company.

It seems that other GMs are certainly on to something as they continue to try to bamboozle and hoodwink Sabes into giving the kid up. Last season may turn out to be, on the surface level, the worst Dirty ever has.

Wigginton Update: The tireless Tom Dierkes has the Giants in on the bidding for Ty Wigginton's services, according to a number of sources. It seems that Sabean was kicking some said tires on Wigginton via trade ahead of last week's non-tender deadline, as well.

Extreme Utility Player Makeover

As I mentioned a couple days back, last night's non-tender deadline bore some potentially intriguing fruit, including a very attractive option in Ty Pennington, er, or Ty Wigginton, rather.

The 'Stros attribute the move solely to the financial crunch, and, given that there's no reason not to believe them, this pickup would be a step up from your run of the mill reclamation project.

Did I mention that Wigginton plays third, second, first and even outfield in a pinch? Did I also mention that he can hit for power? And he's even from the right (left) coast, so in the first time he explores free agency as a player of stature, there's presumably an interest to come out West.

Please Santa Sabes, don't sign Rich Aurilia, God bless him. Tell ole' Billy Boy to pony up a few mill more and get this guy. Two years. It's a good thing.

Other non-tender names that would intrigue me: Takashi Saito, Chris Burke, and Daniel Cabrera. Find the full list of non-tenders here.

Unit and Giants May Be Ugly Enough For One Another

Randy Johnson is zeroing in on the Giants as his preferred landing spot, according to John Shea.

Randy Johnson is being wooed by both Bay Area teams. He seems to prefer the Giants.

"Randy's really interested," one of his agents, Barry Meister, said Thursday, the final day of the winter meetings. "We made a check list of everything that's important, and San Francisco checks off on every box. They're in the National League. They'll be competitive. They train in Arizona.

"San Francisco has a lot of appeal."

Brian Sabean seems to be biting, saying he'd consider a one year deal.

With Noah Lowry a massive question mark and the back-end of the rotation being in less than stellar shape, a one-year deal may not be a bad idea.

Plus, it gives the marketing department, long since upset with the lack of milestones to celebrate with the departure of Barry Bonds, something to look forward to. Best of luck on the "It's 300 Wins, Who Cares If Most Of Them Came With Teams You Hate?" mini-season ticket package.

UPDATED: Sabathia To Yanks Close?

(UPDATE (7:30AM): The deal looks done. Seven years at $160M(!) Glad the big fella was able to leverage one concrete offer and a number of non-offers into a contract nearly as bloated as him. But seriously folks, I'm glad it's the Yanks who are going to go seven on a guy who threw 1.6 million pitches last season and makes Mark Mangino look positively svelte.)

The increasingly dubious chorus of unnamed sources say a deal between CC Sabathia and the Yanks is close following Brian Cashman's pilgrimage to San Francisco.

Unsure what to think what with the crappy game of telephone that transpired at the Bellagio this week, so take it for what it's worth. Whatever happens, we will look back at this as one of the biggest lose-lose personnel decisions the Giants have faced. Why, oh why, couldn't Sabathia have been a free agent in 2006?

UPDATED: Supreme Confidence ≠ Supreme Competence

(UPDATE (1:39PM): The Intrepid One says that Sabathia may well have declined the Yanks' $140 million offer, and that the Giants have met with him. Baggs also says that one exec says the Brewers may now be the frontrunner.)

Via the most excellent MLB Trade Rumors, word around the Bellagio is that the Giants are "supremely confident" that they will sign CC Sabathia, according to Inside the Dodgers.

(I'll leave it to you all to run with that title.)

That's an extremely stray rumor that Tom Tony Jackson concedes is based on hearsay, but the notion that the Giants are interested would seem to be corroborated by Ken Rosenthal's report that management plans to meet with CC in the Bay on Saturday.

Between Sabathia continuing to drag his negotiations out and the Giants non-denials, it looks like the smoke here is legit.

Which begs the question, if Bill Neukom is in a mood to make a 1992 Peter Magowan-esque free agent splash, wouldn't Mark Teixeira make a whole lot more sense?

Howry Reaches Age of Giants Consent

In 1994, the Giants selected Bobby Howry in the fifth round of the amateur draft. The big lug was a hard-thrower, and he ascended through the system at a nice pace, projecting as a solid late-game reliever.

Of course, at the age of 25, Howry's precociousness shook Brian Sabean to the core. Howry's advanced learning curve threatened to undermine Sabean's entire personnel management philosophy (in short: baseball players as fine wines). Offended by Howry's inexcusable prodigious talent, Sabean came up with a solution: stash the kid somewhere else until he actually possessed the veteran savvy so necessary to achieve success in the big leagues, somewhere no Giants fan would ever see him.

Hence, The White Flag Trade.

But a short decade later, it seems Sabean has deemed Howry adequately ripened, at least according to team propagandist Chris Haft. Coming off a 2008 season that it evokes such Giant names as Walker, Bautista or perhaps, dare I say it, Poole, it's easy to see why Sabean likes this guy.

All kidding aside, for a one to two year moderately priced contract, this is the kind of low-risk, medium-reward deal I'd like to see the team make. Howry's a year removed from a solid season at Wrigley, and, in the topsy-turvy world of relievers, there's a good shot he returns to that form going from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park. Plus, due to the Cubs decision to not offer arbitration to Howry, he comes sans compensatory pick.

Most importantly, keeping with a theme that I like, the guy exhibits a rarity in the Giants bullpen of recent history: control.

Between Howry and Jeremy Affeldt, you'll have a couple proven vets to step into a bullpen mentorship vacuum to help out the kids with potential in Sergio Romo, Billy Sadler and Alex Hinshaw. Granted, if Sabean gives Howry a deal that comes close to his last contract, and my reaction may rival this.

Cyber Monday Deal on Edgar Renteria!

The Tigers decline to offer arbitration to Edgar Renteria, paving the way for Edgar to join the Giants without losing a second-rounder.

As long as it's a two year deal, and upon further reflection, I'm perfectly fine with the move. Although many fans are clamoring to see a youth movement, there is little else in the middle infield cupboard besides Manny Burriss, who, in spite of a nice rookie campaign, has a long ways to go as a major league hitter. Kevin Frandsen is coming off a big injury and isn't necessarily a guy you hand a starting position to, and Eugenio Velez is best-suited in a utility role, preferably one that doesn't require him to play defense.

And, even with Renteria on board, one will have to play second.

Two years of Renteria provides a bridge to the Nick Noonans and Charlie Culbersons of the world. Or perhaps even Buster Posey the shortstop, though I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.

And, even if Renteria succumbs to old age or a catastrophic injury, the length of the deal won't cripple the organization by any means. (Unlike some people.)

Rent-A-Shortstop (UPDATED)

(UPDATE #2 (5:10PM): Per Baggs, the report is "premature, or just plain wrong," which makes sense given the upcoming arbitration deadline. If the deal has been reached in principle, Baggarly opines the leak severely undermines the Giants' position to retain their pick as the Tigers can now offer Renteria arbitration and be assured of getting a pick. Very reminiscent of the Yankees situation with Gary Sheffield a few years back.)

(UPDATE (3:18PM): Jerry Crasnick tells MLB Trade Rumors that the report is false, according to Renteria's agent. Meanwhile, Schulman says that the Giants and Rafael Furcal remain in contact. Ordinarily, reports of a deal are summarily denied by player and team until the contract is finalized, but there seems to be some serious questions as to the validity of WFAN's original report. The Giants nation turns it lonely eyes to you, Andy.)

Judging by the free agent posturing, it had become clear that Brian Sabean was intent on cobbling together a team that could contend in the porous NL West. And, today, Sabes made his second strike in free agency, signing shortstop Edgar Renteria, according to WFAN in New York. Unconfirmed details of the agreement: 2 years at $18 million.

Off the top of my head, a quick Point Counter Point -

Point: There's little in the way of organizational depth at shortstop position in the system, so it makes some sense to supplement the team there through free agency.

Counterpoint: Manny Burriss presumably shifts to second base, diminishing his value.

Point: Two year deal.

Counterpoint: $9 million a year to a 33 year old coming off a season in which he accumulated a Neifi-esque .699 OPS. Oh, and the Giants also forfeit their second-rounder.

Point: Renteria has been historically terrible in the AL and and a solid hitter in the NL. He's a year removed from an .860 OPS with Atlanta.

Counterpoint: That doesn't explain his decline defensively last season, when he posted the fourth lowest Zone Rating in the majors.

Point: The entire Tigers team was caught up in a highly contagious malaise that affected team morale.

Counterpoint: Expecting players in their mid-30s to experience a major revival is the height Sabeanmetric cognitive dissonance.

I could go on (Renteria's second half turnaround or the fact that the cold hard statistics belie the common belief that he's a clutch hitter) but I'll leave it to you to for further consternation.

My favorite part of this deal is the deal the Giants didn't make: by not giving a long-term deal to Rafael Furcal, the team avoids committing a long term monies to a guy who could go all Edgardo Alfonzo on us on a dime. Furcal's coming off a 36 game season, and backs are the trickiest of body parts to project. Even Alfonzo was healthy the year before Sabean signed him.

Comment! Open Renteria consternation thread.

First Blood

The Giants strike first in free agency, signing Jeremy Affeldt to a 2 year, $8 million deal.

The deal strikes me as, well, really good. Not sure what Brian Sabean's angle is here, but this is a great short-term deal to a guy who is underrated, at least statistically. From FanGraphs:

Based on 2008, Affeldt has shown an entirely new skillset as compared to his major league career, adding a couple of ticks to both his fastball and curve, which have transformed him into one of the game’s best left-handed relievers. Because his curve is a legitimate second pitch, he shows almost no platoon split, and is equally effective against both LHB and RHBs. His stuff is clearly closer-worthy, and while he has no experience as the 9th inning guy, some smart team would be wise to give him a two or three year contract for setup man money and watch him blossom into one of the game’s best relief aces.

But before all of you go out and celebrate the rehabilitation of Brian Sabean's baseball grey matter, be warned - the needless long-term deal to Rafael Furcal may be forthcoming.