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Friday, December 19, 2008

Where Are They Now? (Hint: It Rhymes with Fatlanta)

Remember Lance Niekro, the Travis Ishikawa of a few years back? The kid with the famous surname bucked the family business and got into hitting. The first base prospect that never really developed but got a big league shot anyway because, hey, we can't sign a 63 year-old Andres Galarraga to another contract, right?

Anyway, after a brief retirement, he's back. As a knuckleballer.

Niekro, who as recently as 2006 was vying to become the Giants' everyday first baseman, is exiting a brief retirement from baseball and will attempt a comeback at age 30 as a right-handed knuckleball pitcher for the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves have signed Niekro to a minor-league contract and will bring him to spring training to see if he can extend the legacy of his late father, Joe, and his uncle Phil and make his living floating baseballs to major-league hitters.
As for all players trying to make a mid-career position switch, I'll be rooting hard for the guy. The fact that he's a former Giant and a knuckleballer makes it way cooler.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Dirty Is Filthy; Giants In On Wiggin...ton

With fantasy season around the corner, fake GMs are emerging from various fake winter meetings in the far recesses of basements everywhere to find a whole new round of 2009 statistical projections. Among the most discussed of these projections are those of our very own Jonathan Sanchez. Bill James, the Godfather of Sabermetrics himself, pegs Sanchez as a 3.90 ERA / 1.40 WHIP pitcher next year. And while James's prognostications tend to be the most optimistic, all the systems peg Sanchez as a particularly unlucky pitcher in 2008 and who stands to improve as chance factors such as BABIP (batted average of balls in play) normalize and as the 26 year-old improves with experience.

Last month, FanGraphs put together an even wonkier breakdown of Sanchez's 2008 season for the die-hard statheads. Among the highlights:

On the bright side, Sanchez struck out almost a batter per inning over 158 innings – not an easy feat. Despite not throwing terribly hard (his fastball averaged 91 MPH), he showed a remarkable ability to induce swings-and-misses – in fact, batters swung and missed at 10.9% of his Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball. Pitchers who induced higher rates of swings-and-misses were a who’s who of major league baseball’s best pitchers: CC Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Ryan Dempster, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Edinson Volquez, and John Danks. That’s some elite company.
It seems that other GMs are certainly on to something as they continue to try to bamboozle and hoodwink Sabes into giving the kid up. Last season may turn out to be, on the surface level, the worst Dirty ever has.

Wigginton Update: The tireless Tom Dierkes has the Giants in on the bidding for Ty Wigginton's services, according to a number of sources. It seems that Sabean was kicking some said tires on Wigginton via trade ahead of last week's non-tender deadline, as well.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Extreme Utility Player Makeover

As I mentioned a couple days back, last night's non-tender deadline bore some potentially intriguing fruit, including a very attractive option in Ty Pennington, er, or Ty Wigginton, rather.

The 'Stros attribute the move solely to the financial crunch, and, given that there's no reason not to believe them, this pickup would be a step up from your run of the mill reclamation project.

Did I mention that Wigginton plays third, second, first and even outfield in a pinch? Did I also mention that he can hit for power? And he's even from the right (left) coast, so in the first time he explores free agency as a player of stature, there's presumably an interest to come out West.

Please Santa Sabes, don't sign Rich Aurilia, God bless him. Tell ole' Billy Boy to pony up a few mill more and get this guy. Two years. It's a good thing.

Other non-tender names that would intrigue me: Takashi Saito, Chris Burke, and Daniel Cabrera. Find the full list of non-tenders here.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Unit and Giants May Be Ugly Enough For One Another

Randy Johnson is zeroing in on the Giants as his preferred landing spot, according to John Shea.

Randy Johnson is being wooed by both Bay Area teams. He seems to prefer the Giants.

"Randy's really interested," one of his agents, Barry Meister, said Thursday, the final day of the winter meetings. "We made a check list of everything that's important, and San Francisco checks off on every box. They're in the National League. They'll be competitive. They train in Arizona.

"San Francisco has a lot of appeal."
Brian Sabean seems to be biting, saying he'd consider a one year deal.

With Noah Lowry a massive question mark and the back-end of the rotation being in less than stellar shape, a one-year deal may not be a bad idea.

Plus, it gives the marketing department, long since upset with the lack of milestones to celebrate with the departure of Barry Bonds, something to look forward to. Best of luck on the "It's 300 Wins, Who Cares If Most Of Them Came With Teams You Hate?" mini-season ticket package.

Rule 5 Draft Highlights: In Your Face, Boredom!

Bay City Ball has a good rundown of the just completed Rule 5 Draft.

Players Acquired: RHP Luis Perdomo (MLB Phase, drafted from Cardinals), LHP Matt Yourkin (AAA Phase, drafted from Marlins)

Players Lost: OF Ben Copeland (MLB Phase, drafted by Athletics), C Elio Sarmiento (AAA Phase, drafted by Rangers), 2B Kyle Haines (AAA Phase, drafted by Phillies).
A bit of a bummer about Copeland, who I liked as a fourth outfielder type, until I realized we already had twenty of them.

In a mild surprise, the Giants retained the rights to Jesus Guzman, a third baseman the Giants signed away from the A's last month. Though a bit old for the league at 24, Guzman absolutely mashed AA pitching and figured to be a low-risk, high-reward signing. Having him around for spring training and beyond is obviously a plus.

Random Rumor-Mongering

With the CC Sabathia non-sweepstakes behind us (leaving Brian Sabean more petulent and whiny than usual), the Giants offseason seems to have taken a turn for the boring.

Sabean has reaffirmed that the Giants will not go after Mark Teixeira, inferring he's not a player worthy of the franchise money he will assuredly get, though you could have fooled me. And Bruce Bochy has gone so far as to pencil in his 2009 lineup publicly, which ELM broke down nicely (pun intended).

Realizing the possibility of management returning to the mean (read: ineptitude) and not addressing the notion of Bengie Molina hitting cleanup, or that Rich Aurilia inexplicably remains on the radar, there absolutely has to be a third way. There are no less than four different ways to address the power vacuum where the team can stay competitive in the short-term while not hurting the long-term at all.

Dollars aside, Edgar Renteria's short-term deal is a good model: there isn't likely to be anyone ready at short for at least two years, and even though Renteria's defense is in decline, he's light years above anyone else the Giants trotted out there last year.

Sign Pat Burrell to a two-year deal that includes a first baseman's glove
Burrell is among the plethora of middle-tier free agents feeling the economic crunch. A Bellarmine product, there's been much talk he'd love to play for his de facto hometown team. Judging by his career stats at Pac Bell, I could see why.

He's a butcher at first? Maybe. He played first in the Phillies' farm system after playing third in the collegiate ranks only to shift to left to accommodate the indomitable Rico Brogna. He really hasn't played much at first since as the Phils have trotted out Travis Lee, Jim Thome and Ryan Howard for stretches during Burrell's tenure.

For two years, I'd give him a shot to be coached up by J.T. Snow. He's only 31, so the guy isn't on the downslope just yet.

And for those of you that think that he'd be "blocking" Travis Ishikawa or John Bowker, I commend your post-J.R. Philips/Desi Wilson/Damon Minor/Lance Niekro/Dan Ortmeier belief that a marginal Giants first base prospect could actually, you know, work out...

Sign or trade a bucket of baseballs for Ty Wigginton
Wigginton is arbitration-eligible and has been mentioned as a candidate to non-tendered ahead of tomorrow's deadline. The Astros simply can't afford him given their current financial situation, and should they even tender him, it shouldn't take much to get him as long as the Giants pay his salary.

Wigginton is a rich man's Rich Aurilia. He can play three infield positions and plays an adequate third. He hits for power. And the only reason his team doesn't want him is financial. Once again, he blocks no one and gives you insurance in a very fluid infield. Wigginton also allows you the ability to trade Molina if the right offer comes along and have Pablo Sandoval slide behind the dish.

Beyond the Boxscore even had Wigginton as one of the top ten third basemen of 2008. I like...

Offer Henry Sosa or Kevin Pucetas for Adrian Beltre
Beltre is good. He plays a good third. He hits well. He hits like .440 well at Pac Bell.

And given yesterday's trade, I'm not convinced that the new guy in Seattle's at all an improvement over the old guy. He certainly, at the very least, isn't interested in winning in the next two years.

As for the fact that Beltre's in a contract year? You retain roster flexibility and cost certainty. If the guy goes off, maybe he's apt to re-sign. He's certainly shown an affinity for the West Coast. You only got him for one of your mid-level prospects at a position where you're stacked...

Offer Pucetas AND Sosa for Dan Uggla
Not Jorge Cantu. Not Jeremy Hermida. Don't trade Sanchez. But this is an attractive package of decent pitching talent to a team with it's own cost certainty woes. You don't give up your top level prospects, and you bring in a proven power guy at a position of need. And you control him for a few years yet...

There are some moves that I wouldn't advocate, particularly signing Adam Dunn, who has hit hideously at Pac Bell and has a way that seems to sour teams and fans on him alike.

There's a legitimate case to be made for doing nothing, although I certainly won't. But you, my friends, can. Isn't the Internet terrific?

Comment! What you got, Armchair GM?

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

UPDATED: Sabathia To Yanks Close?

(UPDATE (7:30AM): The deal looks done. Seven years at $160M(!) Glad the big fella was able to leverage one concrete offer and a number of non-offers into a contract nearly as bloated as him. But seriously folks, I'm glad it's the Yanks who are going to go seven on a guy who threw 1.6 million pitches last season and makes Mark Mangino look positively svelte.)

The increasingly dubious chorus of unnamed sources say a deal between CC Sabathia and the Yanks is close following Brian Cashman's pilgrimage to San Francisco.

Unsure what to think what with the crappy game of telephone that transpired at the Bellagio this week, so take it for what it's worth. Whatever happens, we will look back at this as one of the biggest lose-lose personnel decisions the Giants have faced. Why, oh why, couldn't Sabathia have been a free agent in 2006?

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