Shelly

It's the last day of summer camp.  In your hormone-infused awkward way, you have spent the last four weeks trying to get the second hottest girl at camp to let you get the goodies.

You have heard her gripe about how her boyfriend back home doesn't really listen to her.  You've been the benefactor of a number of arm squeezes and "Oh, you're so sweets."  You even copped a tiny feel while slow-dancing at the "Lucky Louie's Luau" dance in the dining hall.

Unfortunately, it became clear about a week ago that you probably wouldn't get any because she wouldn't want to forsake her beau.  "There's always next summer," you tell yourself.

You spend the last night on a moonlit walk, hand in hand, exchanging vows that you will keep in touch during the school year and even sketch out a plan for a winter-break visit.  On the porch of her cabin you say goodnight, she gives you a peck on the cheek, and you hug her as tight as you possibly can.

If you are the Giants, you then proceed to sneak in through the backdoor and hook up with her fat friend Shelly in her bunk as she watches, horrified.  You mortgage the future hottie for the immediate sow and you don't think twice.  This is what the Giants are doing with Tim Lincecum.

While the Giants remain hopelessly far out of playoff contention, not only do they continue to grope the fat girl, but they do so unabashedly.

Lincecum is presumably this team's best player.  He is also one of their youngest.  He is under team control for four more seasons at bargain basement prices and stands poised to lead this squad back to relevance in the very near future.  Why, then, when discussing pitch counts and pitcher stress am I hearing his name mentioned in conjunction with the likes of Mark Prior (done), Kerry Wood (limited), and Livan Hernandez (the opposite of Tiny Tim)?

Shouldn't we have shut this guy down already?  Isn't this the point in the season where a young arm is already stretched-out and each subsequent toss leads to exponential and not linear additional damage?

For your consideration: Over his last seven starts, Lincecum has averaged, averaged over 120 pitches.  That includes a 138 pitch outing which was the most by any pitcher this year and an outing in which he didn't get past the fifth, but managed to throw 92.  He has thrown more pitches this year than anyone in the Major Leagues.  He is seventh in the bigs with 215 IP and he has two starts remaining.  Am I going crazy here?

Additionally, Lincecum leads the league in Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP), a Baseball Prospectus metric meant to measure the stress or abuse that a pitcher takes over the course of a season.  Some of the names that have been near the top in PAP over the past few years:

- Daisuke: led the league last year, missed time this year
- Jason Schmidt: top-6 in '04, '05 and '06, do I need to say anything else?
- A.J. Burnett: top-5 in '02 and '07, top-10 this year and he has missed time in three of the last five years
- Wood and Prior: both top-5 in 2003, Prior again in 2005 and neither has been the same since

There are more examples, but I don't need to keep going.  You get the picture.

"But he might win the Cy Yooouuuuunnnnggg," you keep whining.

No.  No he won't.

Brandon Webb won his 22nd game last night making him practically a shoe-in for the award.  The BBWAA gets to see very few of Lincecum's games and may not realize how dominant he's been, so they look at W's as a default.

Timmy realizes this and has asked to pitch an extra game on only four days rest.  This game, the last of the season, is against The Bums and beating them would actually help D-Bags reach the playoffs.  This is a double-whammy in that not only does it hurt Lince's arm, it also helps Webb's CY chances if his team makes the playoffs.

In our earlier analogy, the attractive young maiden is the allure of, oh I don't know, a winning season somewhere down the line, while the pig-faced, pock-marked Shelly is the illusion of this year's Cy Young race and the benefits that such an award brings.

We are risking the future, nay The Franchise, for almost no payoff whatsoever.

Tiny Tim need not climb directly to the top in his first full season of major-league service.  He will compete for this award many times in the future.

Well, he will compete for it if he makes it that far without his arm flying off.

For discussion: Should the Giants have already shut him down?  Should they let him pitch tonight in his last scheduled start and then be done?  Or is the temptation of a Giants CY winner enough to let him pitch on the last day as well?

Further reading: Olney talks about Lincecum in the beginning of today's blog (subscription required).