'08 Draft Expert Q&A

I promised more original draft analysis and I would never break a promise to the four regular readers of this blog (although, if people share computers in prison, it could be many more).

Orange Black and Blue is very happy to welcome the insights of Brian Foley, Ed-In-Chief of the most awesome The College Baseball Blog. Brian was gracious enough to answer a boatload of questions, most of them reflecting my complete ignorance of college baseball.

FYI: Brian called the Posey pick a month and a half out.

OBnB: Thanks for your time, Brian. Let's start with a couple of questions regarding the college ballgame in general.

I've read that some NCAA divisions can be compared to AA ball. I see this as a bit of an overreach. What about you?

Do you really get more bang for your buck drafting these guys even though they're older and less malleable in some ways?

BF: The major conferences in the nation are comparable to AA ball but anything out of the major conferences is comparable to Single A ball. The coaching has gotten much better in college in general and scouts are starting to take the college game more seriously then in the past.

OBnB: Can you give us an idea of what the tougher college divisions are and which are less so? For example, is the SEC tougher, and therefore more indicative of future performance than, say, the Pac-10?

BF: I wouldn't say that the Pac-10 is worse or better then the SEC. There is no easy weekend in either conference but I think the Pac-10 is more pitching central then the SEC who is more directed towards offense.

OBnB: In projecting college ballplayers to the pros, how much guesswork is involved given the switch from aluminum to wood?

BF: There used to be more guess work involved in the draft but nearly all the kids today are playing with wood bats in the collegiate summer leagues like the Cape Cod League and Alaskan League among others.

OBnB: Onward to the good stuff - the Giants' haul in the draft earlier this month.

The million (or perhaps 12 million) dollar question: given what was available at #5, was Buster Posey the right pick for the Giants? If not, who should have been the pick there?

BF: I would have taken [South Carolina first baseman] Justin Smoak, personally, as his upside is hitting .330 with 25-30 homers a season plus Gold Glove defense at first base. Posey strikes me to be a .275 hitter with 15 homers a year and really never scared me at the plate.

(Ed: Dammit, I thought I was wrong.)

OBnB: What do you think the best-case and worst-case is for Posey? Are we looking at 1990s Jason Kendall or 2000s Kendall?

BF: I think Kendall is a good comparison but Posey doesn't run as well as Kendall does. Plus Posey has a ton to learn behind the plate as he just finished the second season of his life catching while never calling a game on his own.

OBnB: What’s your take on sandwich round pick Conor Gillaspie (Wichita State)? He seems like a pick with little upside but with a good chance of making the big leagues. Are the Bill Mueller comparisons apt? And will he be able to play a major league third base?

BF: He is a very good hitter for average and the biggest question mark is going to be his power numbers. I think Mueller was a better defensive player then Conor.

OBnB: Third-rounder Roger Kieschnick of Texas Tech supposedly has the vaunted five tools, but there are doubts about his ability to put it together. Do you like the pick, and do you see him as a guy that could potentially crack a big league lineup?

BF: He had a horrible year at Texas Tech where he only hit .305 with 17 homers but the chatter across the country was not about his season at all. He just never seemed to dominate games as he was the only pro bat in the lineup.

OBnB: We’ve heard that fourth-rounder Brandon Crawford (UCLA) was a potential first-rounder prior to his poor showing in the Cape League last year and has never really been able to recover. Can this guy bounce back, and what do you think we have in him?

BF: I think you have a kid that can't hit with wood and might struggle to make the MLB as anything besides an extra infielder like Alex Cora. He might be a tough sign too since he could go back to school and be a first round pick with a solid summer.

OBnB: After their first four picks, the Giants went back to what they know, going pitching with their next 8 picks, 6 of whom played for four year colleges. Many of these guys have very little info available as to their college careers. Can you give us your take on these guys, particularly fifth-rounder Edwin Quirarte (CSU Northridge) and sixth-rounder Eric Surkamp (North Carolina State)?

BF: I know more about Surkamp as he was expected to be the ace of the NC State squad this season after a solid summer with Team USA in 2007. He went 1-0 in four appearances and three starts with a 1.15 ERA. He had a tough 2008 collegiate season as he was bumped off the number 1 starter role by Clayton Schunick but still led the Pack to the NCAA Tourney.

OBnB: The Giants took a power hitting first baseman about 15 rounds later than many, including myself, would have preferred. That being said, 16th-rounder C.J. Ziegler was a major producer at Arizona, but there’s a perception that his swing won’t play at the next level. Do you have any insight on a guy who hit at a similar clip to ASU’s Ike Davis, who went in Round 1?

BF: Ziegler has a metal bat swing which means he hits his homers by bat speed - not on raw talent and using the whole field.

OBnB: Any other Giants late round picks that jump out to you?

BF: Scott Barnes [8th round, LHP] from St. John's has great numbers in the Big East but was it against good enough competition? I saw [25th-rounder] Damon Wright play from Dartmouth and he was the 3rd or 4th best hitter on this team so I don't think he will be able to make it. Aaron Lowenstein [44th round, C] from UC-Irvine might become a great second catcher in MLB unless he learns how to hit and could be a great catcher because he calls a great game.

OBnB: What would be your grade for the Giants draft?

BF: Ask me in three years when we can see how these kids adjust to the Minor Leagues.