Weymo's Draft Analysis: Final Part (with Mock)

Also see:
Expert Draft Analysis (Seriously!): Part I (The Top Collegians)
Weymo's Draft Analysis: Part II (The High Schoolers and Dark Horses)

In his final installment, the Incredible Weymo (aka venerable collegiate baseball expert Justin Weyman) reveals his mock draft ahead of today's 11AM PST real draft.

Weymo's Mock Top 10

As signing bonuses for players who have never worn a professional uniform continue to climb toward the obscene, Major League clubs have increasingly been focusing on college talent in the early rounds in recent years. This is very evident in this year's draft, as some prep stars with higher upsides may fall lower than in years past because their collegiate brethren are closer to fulfilling their multi-million dollar potential. This is great news to teams who draft outside of the top 10 who could be the lucky recipients of some long-term stars.

So without further ado, here is my completely unscientific shot-in-the-dark attempt to get inside the minds of general managers who in some cases (cough, cough Pittsburgh Pirate brass) may be drafting for their jobs.

1. Tampa Bay - Buster Posey, C Florida State

Okay, so Tampa and I are probably on the same page with this one, as Posey is the safe choice for their situation. If trading picks were allowed, you'd probably see a dozen GMs lining up outside of the Giant Orange Juice Squeezer in St. Petersburg for a chance to move into the top slot. As it is, Tampa will ultimately draft Posey to fulfill a need behind the plate in what should be a short stay in the minors. The Rays torrid start may have surprised the casual baseball fan, but anybody who has followed the development of their young talent expected them to break through eventually.

Posey will almost certainly be plugged into their three-year plan and should be a key cog for a franchise that may or may not actually still be in Tampa by the time Busta Bus is called up. Taking a (relatively) local kid provides added ammunition in their quest for a new stadium, which may be the deciding factor.

2. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

As a Pennsylvania native who counts many long-suffering Bucco fans as friends, I've got a special interest in this pick. Watching the Pirate drafts throughout the last decade and a half has been a lot like watching a movie starring Nic Cage. Nine times out of ten you're going to get The Rock or National Treasure, but eventually you'll score with Adaptation, right? RIGHT?

The attitude toward Bucco Ball in Western PA has turned from anger to frustration to desperation to a resigned indifference. With that in mind, it's virtually impossible for me to see the Pirates going with anyone other than a "sure thing," and Alvarez appears to be perfectly cast in this role. There are obviously injury concerns, but all signs point to the hand having healed, so Pedro should be cleared by doctors.

One thing is certain, there is absolutely ZERO chance dat dem y'inzers (who speak a regional dialect as unique as any in the country) will take a pitcher in this spot. If they do, all 650 season ticket holders should start leaving more than the remnants of Primanti Brothers sandwiches under their seats at PNC Park, if you know what I mean.

3. Kansas City – Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)

GM Dayton Moore learned the ropes from John Scheurholz, who never met a Georgia prep player he didn't like, so it would come as no shock to see Beckham start his ascension to the Bigs in Royal blue. Moore is mentioned as being on the proverbial hot seat, so there's got to be some pressure to go with a college bat, but if he's doing his job and thinking more about the health of the organization than the health of his 401(k), then he'll take the draft's top talent and not look back.

4. Baltimore – Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

I couldn't decide between Matusz and Justin Smoak for this spot, but since it looks like the O's are leaning toward pitching, I'll go with the lanky lefty from SoCal. It might not be the right choice for the franchise, as Matusz is far from a sure thing, but making the right choice hasn't exactly been a forte of this woebegotten franchise-by-the-bay. If nothing else it sets us up for…

5. San Francisco – Justin Smoak, 1B, U. of South Carolina

My first journalism professor once told me that knowing one's audience is the most important piece of information that any writer can possess. So with that firmly planted in the front of my mind, I deliver to you long-suffering Giants fans the franchise first baseman that you've been waiting for since Todd Benzinger hung up his cleats.

Smoak gets the nod over Yonder Alonso because of his switch-hitting prowess and should rise quickly to the Bigs, barring any franchise-destroying, heart-wrenching, soul-crushing injury along the way. (Sorry, just had to do it…)

6. Florida – Yonder Alonso, 1B, U Miami

Selecting a Hurricane with bona fide top-5 ability should be a no-brainer for a franchise building a new stadium on the site of the demolished Orange Bowl. With plans for the new yard still being developed, the addition of Alonso may lead the designers to shrink the dimensions to add 5-10 homers for the left handed slugger.*

*See Citizens Bank Park & Ryan Howard.

7. Cincinnati – Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Strictly a guess for this one based solely on the amount of quality young pitching already in the organization and the lack of a real shortstop in the pipeline (I mean come on, Jerry Hairston, Jr.??). Beckham is an outstanding hitter and, like most of the collegiate hitters in this draft, should move along quickly. Add him to a lineup with Jay "I can hit any pitch in any location" Bruce, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, et al., and the Reds could be a team to reckon with in a few years. Seriously.

8. Chicago White Sox – Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State

Paul Konerko's got to retire at some point and they might as well get a start on his advancing his replacement. Wallace is referred to by multiple scouts as the best pure hitter in the draft who, as I mentioned in an earlier post, has an unusual body type.

When asked for his opinion on my choice for his team, Manager Ozzie Guillen said "What the **** do I care?! If you think I'm going to ****ing be here when that ****er makes it to Chicago then you're out of your ****ing mind!!"

9. Washington – Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)

He may be only 18, but there's no way he's any worse than Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada, right?? This appears to be the guy that the Nats want, which means that he'll become a premiere prospect and then Jim Bowden will ship him off as part of a seven-man package in exchange for an aging Ken Griffey, Jr. and a situational lefty.

10. Houston – Aaron Crow, RHP, Mizzou

I think Crow is a shoo-in to go in the top 10, I'm just not sure where so I'll wrap it up with him going to the Astros. He's a hard-thrower who projects as a future number one starter. Three plus pitches – including a fastball that touches 96 – have scouts drooling and they should only become more effective against wooden bats.

Because of the unpredictable nature of the entire MLB Draft system, I'm only confident about my ability to get at least 75% of this wrong. Take it for what it's worth and let me know what you think. My team doesn't draft until pick 40, (thanks Tom Glavine) so leave something for us poor Braves fans…

Happy Drafting!

Discussion Junction: So who are the Giants going to take? Give us your predictions as to the top of the draft.

As a bonus, those who answer correctly get to punch Weymo for every pick in the top 10 he got wrong. (If he's got a good chin and a forgiving heart, he might stick around and answer questions, too.)