Expert Draft Analysis (Seriously!): Part I

Through dumb luck and an offer of Orange Black and Blue's first born, we're very happy to have former Penn State radio voice Justin Weyman weigh in on tomorrow's draft.

Weymo's a cross between pundit and prodigy when it comes to college baseball, sort of a prunditgy, if you will, and we're thrilled to have him as a guest.

As an added benefit, unlike most scouts, he has a sense of humor!

Here's his take on a few of the collegians the Giants could consider with pick 5 tomorrow (in no particular order):

Pedro Alvarez 3B Vanderbilt

Alvarez spent last season as the most highly-regarded Commodore not named David Price - who was taken number one overall by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. After Vandy's season ended prematurely with an upset in the NCAA tournament at the hands of an underrated Michigan team, the hard-hitting third baseman became the presumptive number one pick in this year's draft. The only thing to derail that notion was a broken hamate bone (which is apparently located somewhere in the hand - thanks Wikipedia!) that sidelined him for more than a month in his junior season. He produced relatively modest power numbers this season – almost certainly due to the recovery - but he finished strong, hitting an even .400 (with an astronomical 1.181 OPS) against always tough SEC pitching.

He won't win any Gold Gloves at third, but he's athletic enough that teams won't be scared off by his defense. Alvarez was drafted in the 14th round out of high school, making his decision to spend three years in Nashville a good one as most scouts believe he could make a quick ascension to the big leagues if he finds himself in the right situation. He probably could move to first if necessary, but power hitting third basemen are hard to find, so I'd expect him to get a very long leash and some extra instruction at the hot corner. Monetary demands might be the only thing keeping Alvarez out of the number one pick, but he shouldn't fall out of the top five.

Justin Smoak 1B South Carolina

This guy is a stud. In a year with a boatload of collegiate first base talent, Smoak is steering the ship. He is the type of hitter that scouts salivate over, leading to Major League projections of 40 home runs and comparisons to Lance Berkman. It's not difficult to see what they see: a switch hitter who hits for average and power from both sides, a smooth, easy swing that has been slump-proof throughout his three seasons as a Gamecock and a strong 6'4" frame that thus far has been injury-free.

Generally speaking, the talent and competition of college baseball in a solid conference like the SEC can be safely compared to the AA minor league level. Working under this premise, Smoak's statistics are almost unbelievable. In 63 games, he hit .383 with 23 homers and 72 RBI, was on base more than 50% of the time, leading to a ridiculous 1.262 OPS. He was the MVP of the Cape Cod League after his sophomore year, so the transition to wooden bats doesn't seem to be a concern.

He'll be limited to first base defensively but that should also keep him healthy between at bats. The only negative that I can find with this future franchise foundation is that he lists Tom Cruise as his favorite actor, but I guess no one's perfect…

Buster Posey C Florida State

Probably the odds-on favorite to go number one to the Rays, but not because he's the number one talent. This isn't to say he's a number one pick of Pittsburgh Pirate proportions – wherefore art thou Bryan Bullington? – he should rise to the Bigs quickly and once there, should be a consistent hitter with moderate power. (Think Joe Mauer with a little more pop.)

He's drawn rave reviews for his ability to call a game and doesn't seem to take any pitches off mentally. Defensively he's a work in progress, having transitioned from the middle infield, so a little coaching should turn him into an above-average defender. College catchers who can hit and who project to stay behind the plate are always a hot commodity and Tampa may elect to go with Posey over a high-schooler like Tim Beckham because he'll require less seasoning, even if Beckham would be the cheaper option.

Brian Matusz LHP San Diego

The classic high risk/high reward prospect, Matusz is a tall lefty who has baffled collegiate bats for the past two seasons with nasty breaking stuff and a fastball that is just effective enough to get the job done. While this isn't exactly the normal M/O of a strikeout pitcher, Matusz K'd 141 hitters in just over 100 innings. He pitches backward, taking advantage of the occasional inability of college hitters to identify and hit pitches with a lot of movement. This could be a concern as he moves up the minor league ladder and faces professional hitters who are more adept at recognizing spin out of a pitcher's hand. If he can add some movement to his fastball – which usually sits at a respectable 88-92 mph range – he may be able to accentuate his off-speed repertoire.

That's the reward; the risk is the always present concern about potential injury given his unconventional delivery motion. A team that isn't discouraged by potential health problems could be getting a front-line starter who could be an ace in the right system.

Gordon Beckham SS Georgia

If you're a shortstop from the state of Georgia named Beckham, chances are you're going to be a rich young man in the very near future. Gordon the Bulldog, is an excellent hitter with surprising power – as witnessed by an amazing 24 home runs as a junior – and above average defensive skills, although a future position change wouldn't surprise me.

Scouts consistently mention his feel for the game; always knowing when to talk to a struggling pitcher or running the bases intelligently, traits of a potential clubhouse and on-field leader. He'll probably be selected in the top 15 and projects as a .300-20-80 hitter with good speed. Those are numbers that any team in the middle of the first round would love to add to their system.

(Editor's Note: He's also a douchebag)

In the next part, Weymo scouts the rest of the top 10 (including the high schoolers) and gives us his take as to how the top of the 2008 MLB Draft will shake out.

UPDATE: Check out the comments for Q&A as well as more insights from Weymo.